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dc.contributor.authorSawischlewski, Katjaen_US
dc.contributor.authorMenkhoff, Lukasen_US
dc.contributor.authorBeckmann, Danielaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T16:07:13Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T16:07:13Z-
dc.date.issued2005en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/19796-
dc.description.abstractEarly warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Keeping this in mind, five lessons emerge : First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, among competing crisis definitions there is one which is most practical. Third, take a logit model to condense information from various fundamental variables. Fourth, add a regional contagion dummy to the standard set of variables. Fifth, one may be tempted to address instability over time and countries by taking shorter samples and regional EWSs.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisheren_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesProceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 / Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics 3en_US
dc.subject.jelF31en_US
dc.subject.jelF33en_US
dc.subject.jelF37en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordearly warning systemen_US
dc.subject.keywordcurrency crisesen_US
dc.subject.keywordemerging marketsen_US
dc.titleRobust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systemsen_US
dc.typeConference Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn500741735en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:gdec05:3476-
Appears in Collections:Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, 2005 (Kiel)

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