Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/19796 
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 No. 3
Publisher: 
Verein für Socialpolitik, Ausschuss für Entwicklungsländer, Hannover
Abstract: 
Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Keeping this in mind, five lessons emerge : First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, among competing crisis definitions there is one which is most practical. Third, take a logit model to condense information from various fundamental variables. Fourth, add a regional contagion dummy to the standard set of variables. Fifth, one may be tempted to address instability over time and countries by taking shorter samples and regional EWSs.
Subjects: 
early warning system
currency crises
emerging markets
JEL: 
F31
F33
F37
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
185.25 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.