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Title:Empirical risk analysis of pension insurance: the case of Germany PDF Logo
Authors:Schmieder, Christian
Reinschmidt, Timo
Mager, Ferdinand
Gerke, Wolfgang
Issue Date:2006
Series/Report no.:Discussion Paper, Series 2: Banking and Financial Supervision 2006,07
Abstract:With this paper we seek to contribute to the literature on pension insurance systems. The financial literature tends to focus exclusively on the US pension insurance system. This is the first major empirical study to address the German occupational pension insurance (PSVaG) plan in Germany. The study is based on a Merton-type one-factor model, in which we determine the credit portfolio risk profile of the occupational pension insurance plan and compare two alternative pricing plans. We find that there is a low, yet non-negligible risk of very high losses that may threaten the existence of the occupational pension insurance plan (PSVaG). While relating risk premiums to firms' default probabilities would cause them to diverge widely, a marginal risk contribution method would produce less pronounced differences compared to the current, uniform pricing plan.
Subjects:Pension insurance
Risk-adjusted premiums
Credit portfolio risk
JEL:G18
G28
C15
G22
G23
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank

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