Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19747
Authors: 
Krüger, Ulrich
Stötzel, Martin
Trück, Stefan
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper, Series 2: Banking and Financial Supervision 2005,14
Abstract: 
This paper provides an overview on classical and new methods for testing time series properties of migration matrices. It is well known that due to cyclical behaviour of the economy transition matrices for many credit portfolios cannot be considered to be constant through time. Further, transition matrices are dependent on the used rating methodology. We investigate the changes in migrations of an extensiverating system based on financial ratios. Our findings are time-inhomogeneity, second-order Mrkov behaviour, a tendency for "rating equalization" and vast effects of migration behaviour on risk figures like expected shortfall and VaR. We further illustrate how changes in migration matrices can be related to macroeconomic factors.
Subjects: 
Reduced Form Models
Rating Transitions
Markov Property
Internal Rating Systems
Time Homogeneity
Matrix Norms
JEL: 
G33
G20
G13
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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