EconStor >
Deutsche Bundesbank, Forschungszentrum, Frankfurt am Main >
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19646
  
Title:Do monetary indicators (still) predict euro area inflation? PDF Logo
Authors:Hofmann, Boris
Issue Date:2006
Series/Report no.:Discussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank 2006,18
Abstract:This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period since the start of EMU considering a wide range of forecasting models, including standard bivariate forecasting models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as well as trivariate two-pillar Phillips Curve type forecasting models. The results suggest that monetary indicators are still useful indicators for inflation in the euro area, but that a thorough and broad based monetary analysis is needed to extract the information content of monetary developments for future inflation.
Subjects:euro area
inflation
leading indicators
money
JEL:E31
E40
C32
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
200618dkp.pdf637.39 kBAdobe PDF
No. of Downloads: Counter Stats
Download bibliographical data as: BibTeX
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19646

Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.