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Deutsche Bundesbank, Forschungszentrum, Frankfurt am Main >
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19646
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| Title: | | Do monetary indicators (still) predict euro area inflation?  |
| Authors: | | Hofmann, Boris |
| Issue Date: | | 2006 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Discussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank 2006,18 |
| Abstract: | | This paper assesses the performance of monetary indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period since the start of EMU considering a wide range of forecasting models, including standard bivariate forecasting models, factor models, simple combination forecasts as well as trivariate two-pillar Phillips Curve type forecasting models. The results suggest that monetary indicators are still useful indicators for inflation in the euro area, but that a thorough and broad based monetary analysis is needed to extract the information content of monetary developments for future inflation. |
| Subjects: | | euro area inflation leading indicators money |
| JEL: | | E31 E40 C32 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank
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