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Title:Forecasting German GDP using alternative factor models based on large datasets PDF Logo
Authors:Schumacher, Christian
Issue Date:2005
Series/Report no.:Discussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank 2005,24
Abstract:This paper discusses the forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on a large panel of quarterly time series for the german economy. One model extracts factors by static principals components analysis, the other is based on dynamic principal components obtained using frequency domain methods. The third model is based on subspace algorithm for state space models. Out-of-sample forecasts show that the prediction errors of the factor models are generally smaller than the errors of simple autoregressive benchmark models. Among the factors models, either the dynamic principal component model or the subspace factor model rank highest in terms of forecast accuracy in most cases. However, neither of the dynamic factor models can provide better forecasts than the static model over all forecast horizons and different specifications of the simulation design. Therefore, the application of the dynamic factor models seems to provide only small forecasting improvements over the static factor model for forecasting German GDP.
Subjects:Factor models
static and dynamic factors
principal components
forecasting accuracy
JEL:C51
E32
C43
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank

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