Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19494
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dc.contributor.authorCroushore, Deanen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T15:58:57Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T15:58:57Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/19494-
dc.description.abstractCould a researcher or policy analyst use data reported from surveys of consumerconfidence to improve forecasts of consumer spending? This issue has been examinedin the literature previously, which reached the conclusion that consumer confidencehelped improve the forecasts slightly. But that research was based on final, revised dataand thus did not use the data that would have been available to forecasters in real time.This paper remedies that shortcoming, using the Real-Time Data Set forMacroeconomists to analyze the quality of forecasts made with indexes of consumerconfidence. The main finding is that the indexes of consumer confidence are not ofsignificant value in forecasting consumer spending. In fact, in some cases, they makethe forecasts significantly worse.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisher|aDeutsche Bundesbank |cFrankfurt a. M.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aDiscussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank |x2004,27en_US
dc.subject.jelE27en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.stwKonsumklimaen_US
dc.subject.stwGesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsumen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwSch├Ątzungen_US
dc.subject.stwTheorieen_US
dc.subject.stwVereinigte Staatenen_US
dc.titleDo Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn470320052en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2293-

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