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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19494
  

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dc.contributor.authorCroushore, Deanen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T15:58:57Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T15:58:57Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/19494-
dc.description.abstractCould a researcher or policy analyst use data reported from surveys of consumer confidence to improve forecasts of consumer spending? This issue has been examined in the literature previously, which reached the conclusion that consumer confidence helped improve the forecasts slightly. But that research was based on final, revised data and thus did not use the data that would have been available to forecasters in real time. This paper remedies that shortcoming, using the Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists to analyze the quality of forecasts made with indexes of consumer confidence. The main finding is that the indexes of consumer confidence are not of significant value in forecasting consumer spending. In fact, in some cases, they make the forecasts significantly worse.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisheren_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiscussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank 2004,27en_US
dc.subject.jelE27en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.stwKonsumklimaen_US
dc.subject.stwGesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsumen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwSch├Ątzungen_US
dc.subject.stwTheorieen_US
dc.subject.stwVereinigte Staatenen_US
dc.titleDo Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn470320052en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2293-
Appears in Collections:Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank

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