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Deutsche Bundesbank, Forschungszentrum, Frankfurt am Main >
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank >
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http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19481
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| Title: | | Real-Time Estimation of the Output Gap in Japan and its Usefulness for Inflation Forecasting and Policymaking  |
| Authors: | | Kamada, Koichiro |
| Issue Date: | | 2004 |
| Series/Report no.: | | Discussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank 2004,14 |
| Abstract: | | This paper examines the methods used by the Bank of Japan for the estimation of the output gap. Attention is paid to the real-time estimation problem. After reviewing the evolution of output gap estimation at the Bank, I discuss advantages and disadvantages of the various output gap measures. First, I examine the usefulness of the output gap for inflation forecasting and show that the real-time output gap sometimes includes much noise. Second, I investigate the implications of the real-time estimation problem for the policy evaluation. Third, I exploit TANKAN to enhance the usefulness of the real-time output gap. |
| Subjects: | | output gap real-time estimation inflation forecasting Taylor Rule |
| JEL: | | E31 E32 E52 E58 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank
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