EconStor >
Deutsche Bundesbank, Forschungszentrum, Frankfurt am Main >
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Title:Real-Time Estimation of the Output Gap in Japan and its Usefulness for Inflation Forecasting and Policymaking PDF Logo
Authors:Kamada, Koichiro
Issue Date:2004
Series/Report no.:Discussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank 2004,14
Abstract:This paper examines the methods used by the Bank of Japan for the estimation of the output gap. Attention is paid to the real-time estimation problem. After reviewing the evolution of output gap estimation at the Bank, I discuss advantages and disadvantages of the various output gap measures. First, I examine the usefulness of the output gap for inflation forecasting and show that the real-time output gap sometimes includes much noise. Second, I investigate the implications of the real-time estimation problem for the policy evaluation. Third, I exploit TANKAN to enhance the usefulness of the real-time output gap.
Subjects:output gap
real-time estimation
inflation forecasting
Taylor Rule
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat
200414dkp.pdf372.75 kBAdobe PDF
No. of Downloads: Counter Stats
Download bibliographical data as: BibTeX
Share on:

Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.