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Title:Non-Linear Dynamics and Predictable Forecast Errors: An Application to the OECD Forecasts for Germany PDF Logo
Authors:Antzoulatos, Angelos A.
Wilfling, Bernd
Issue Date:2003
Series/Report no.:HWWA Discussion Paper 223
Abstract:Recent theoretical advances in consumption theory suggest that there may exist predictable consumption surges which, if not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting, may lead to predictable forecast errors. We use this insight to identify economic variables that might help improve the OECD?s forecasts for Germany?s consumption and GDP growth.
Subjects:Consumption
GDP
macroeconomic forecasts
non-linear dynamics
JEL:C53
E21
E37
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:HWWA Discussion Paper, Hamburgisches Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv

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