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Title:Inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty in the Eurozone : evidence from survey data PDF Logo
Authors:Arnold, Ivo J. M.
Lemmen, Jan J. G.
Issue Date:2006
Series/Report no.:CESifo working papers 1667
Abstract:This paper uses the European Commission?s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the Euro in Europe. Consumers? responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on past national inflation rates than on the ECB?s anchor for price stability. The convergence in inflation expectations does not appear to be faster than the convergence in actual inflation rates. Regarding inflation uncertainty, the data indicate a relationship with country size, suggesting that within EMU, inflation uncertainty may increase in countries that have a smaller influence on ECB policy.
Subjects:monetary union
inflation differentials
consumer survey
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich

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