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dc.contributor.authorPesaran, Mohammad Hashemen
dc.contributor.authorWeale, Martin R.en
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T15:54:47Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T15:54:47Z-
dc.date.issued2005-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/19063-
dc.description.abstractThis paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling ofexpectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importanceof allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rationalexpectations hypothesis which focuses on average expectations rather than individualexpectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptiveexpectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational andextrapolative models of expectations are reviewed and the importance of the loss function forthe interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper then provides an account of thevarious surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitativesurveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis ofexpectations and for forecasting.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aCenter for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo) |cMunichen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aCESifo Working Paper |x1599en
dc.subject.jelC53en
dc.subject.jelC50en
dc.subject.jelC40en
dc.subject.jelC80en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordmodels of expectations formationen
dc.subject.keywordsurvey dataen
dc.subject.keywordheterogeneityen
dc.subject.keywordtests of rational expectationsen
dc.subject.stwRationale Erwartungen
dc.subject.stwErwartungstheorieen
dc.titleSurvey expectations-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn503765929en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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