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dc.contributor.authorPesaran, Mohammad Hashemen_US
dc.contributor.authorWeale, Martin R.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T15:54:47Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T15:54:47Z-
dc.date.issued2005en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/19063-
dc.description.abstractThis paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focuses on average expectations rather than individual expectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptive expectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational and extrapolative models of expectations are reviewed and the importance of the loss function for the interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper then provides an account of the various surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitative surveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis of expectations and for forecasting.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCESifo working papers 1599en_US
dc.subject.jelC53en_US
dc.subject.jelC50en_US
dc.subject.jelC40en_US
dc.subject.jelC80en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordmodels of expectations formationen_US
dc.subject.keywordsurvey dataen_US
dc.subject.keywordheterogeneityen_US
dc.subject.keywordtests of rational expectationsen_US
dc.subject.stwRationale Erwartungen_US
dc.subject.stwErwartungstheorieen_US
dc.titleSurvey expectationsen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn503765929en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich

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