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Title:Exploring the international linkages of the euro area : a global VAR analysis PDF Logo
Authors:Dees, Stephane
di Mauro, Filippo
Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem
Smith, L. Vanessa
Issue Date:2005
Series/Report no.:CESifo working papers 1425
Abstract:This paper presents a global model linking individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific variables as an approximate solution to a global common factor model. This global VAR is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy. This paper proposes two important extensions of previous research (see Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner, 2004). First, it provides a theoretical framework where the GVAR is derived as an approximation to a global unobserved common factor model. Also using average pair-wise cross-section error correlations, the GVAR approach is shown to be quite effective in dealing with the common factor interdependencies and international comovements of business cycles. Second, in addition to generalised impulse response functions, we propose an identification scheme to derive structural impulse responses. We focus on identification of shocks to the US economy, particularly the monetary policy shocks, and consider the time profiles of their effects on the euro area. To this end we include the US model as the first country model and consider alternative orderings of the US variables. Further to the US monetary policy shock, we also consider oil price, US equity and US real output shocks.
Subjects:Global VAR (GVAR)
global interdependencies
global macroeconomic modeling
impulse responses
JEL:E17
C32
E47
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:CESifo Working Papers, CESifo Group Munich

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