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dc.contributor.authorMiddendorf, Torgeen_US
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Torstenen_US
dc.coverage.temporal1975-2004en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T15:48:44Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T15:48:44Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/18575-
dc.description.abstractIt is unclear whether the exceptionally highU.S. current account deficit can be sustained for a prolonged period. In this paper we approach the topic whether a gradual adjustment or a pronounced reduction of the deficit is likely to occur. We therefore characterize the dynamics of the current account deficit movements by a three-regime Markov-Switching model. Our finding is that it is possible to distinguish a regime of a strong increasing deficit, a just slightly increasing deficit and a regime of a deficit reduction. Furthermore we find that movements of the deficit are asymmetric.Whereas expansions of the current account deficit are long lasting, reductions of the deficit are rather short. This implies that a pronounced reduction is not likely to occur. Secondly we try to uncover determinants of regime shifts of the current account. Applying ordered Logit models we conclude that a combination of U.S. inflation, U.S. investment and share prices predicts pronounced changes in the current account deficit quite reliably.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisheren_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesRWI Discussion Papers 24en_US
dc.subject.jelC22en_US
dc.subject.jelF32en_US
dc.subject.jelC25en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordMarkov-Switching Modelen_US
dc.subject.keywordOrdered Logiten_US
dc.subject.keywordIndicatorsen_US
dc.subject.stwLeistungsbilanzen_US
dc.subject.stwZahlungsbilanzungleichgewichten_US
dc.subject.stwMarkovscher Prozessen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwVereinigte Staatenen_US
dc.subject.stwregime switchingen_US
dc.titleCharacterizing Movements of the U.S. Current Account Deficiten_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn474229157en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
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RWI Discussion Papers

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