|
EconStor >
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin >
DIW-Diskussionspapiere >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18322
|
| | |
| Title: | | Estimating and Forecasting Aggregate Productivity Growth Trends in the US and Germany  |
| Authors: | | Erber, Georg Fritsche, Ulrich |
| Issue Date: | | 2005 |
| Series/Report no.: | | DIW-Diskussionspapiere 471 |
| Abstract: | | This paper addresses the issue of estimating and forecasting productivity growth trends in the US and Germany from the perspective of a business cycle researcher who wants to use the available information in time series of aggregate labor productivity to derive a model for short- and/or long-term forecasts of labour productivity. We will use stability tests and a deterministic model with structural breaks that is estimated using the methods mentioned in Hansen (2001). The methodological approach also draws on Gordon (2003) using a Kalman filter specification. We discuss the implications of unit-root assumptions for long-term forecasts and argue in favor of a near unit-root modelling. That implies a convergence of productivity growth rates in both countries within the next 15 years. |
| JEL: | | E24 C22 E23 C32 E37 E30 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW DIW-Diskussionspapiere
|
| |
| | |
Download bibliographical data as:
BibTeX
|
| |
Share on:http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18322
|
Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
|