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dc.contributor.authorSlacalek, Jirien_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T15:40:46Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T15:40:46Z-
dc.date.issued2004en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/18313-
dc.description.abstractI propose an econometric model that improves upon existing methods of estimating the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) by using information contained in the trend of productivity growth. My approach enhances the recently proposed model of Staiger, Stock and Watson (1997) in several respects. Statistically speaking, the method substantially shrinks the width of the 95% confidence interval, performs better in an out-of-sample inflation forecasting exercise, and is more robust to alternative statistical assumptions. In economic terms, the productivity-augmented model generates a more realistic time profile of the NAIRU, and implies estimates of the Phillips curve slope and the sacrifice ratio that are more in line with conventional wisdom. I also test whether the natural rate is correlated with the level or with the change of the productivity growth trend. I find support for the ?level? hypothesis in both the US and international data.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherDeutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlinen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDIW-Diskussionspapiere 461en_US
dc.subject.jelC22en_US
dc.subject.jelE50en_US
dc.subject.jelE31en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordnatural rate of unemploymenten_US
dc.subject.keywordproductivityen_US
dc.subject.keywordPhillips curveen_US
dc.subject.keywordtimevarying parametersen_US
dc.subject.keywordKalman filteren_US
dc.titleProductivity and the Natural Rate of Unemploymenten_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn47631979Xen_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
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