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| Title: | | Declining Output Volatility in Germany : Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of Monetary Policy  |
| Authors: | | Fritsche, Ulrich Kuzin, Vladimir N. |
| Issue Date: | | 2004 |
| Series/Report no.: | | DIW-Diskussionspapiere 433 |
| Abstract: | | We analyse the decline in output volatility in Germany. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output growth can be either due to a change in the structure of the economy (a change in the propagation mechanism) or a reduced error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the decline output volatility is due to a decline in the persistence of the growth process. This is in contrast to the U.S. results. The structural change is more of a gradual nature than a sudden break. The evolution of Germany's short-term real interest rate volatility coincides with the change of the autoregressive parameter. A change in the conduct of monetary policy (the establishment of another monetary policy regime) could be part of an explanation for the change in propagation. Stochastic simulations with a New Keynesian DSGE model support our hypothesis. |
| Subjects: | | Output Volatility Monetary Policy Markov Switching Model State Space Model Spectral Analysis DSGE model |
| JEL: | | E32 C51 C22 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW DIW-Diskussionspapiere
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