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Title:Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany : An Assessment of Accuracy and Dispersion PDF Logo
Authors:Fritsche, Ulrich
Döpke, Jörg
Issue Date:2004
Series/Report no.:DIW-Diskussionspapiere 399
Abstract:Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2003 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality are found among forecasters. We argue that it is not always advisable to listen to the majority of forecasters. The dispersion of forecasts correlates positively with the volatility of macroeconomic variables. This suggests that forecasters do not behave predominately strategically, but rather share no common belief on the adequate model of the economy.
Subjects:Forecast error evaluation
consensus forecast
disagreement
uncertainty
Germany
JEL:E37
E32
C53
C52
Document Type:Working Paper
Appears in Collections:Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW
DIW-Diskussionspapiere

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