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| Title: | | Mis-Leading Indicators? The Argentinean Currency Crisis  |
| Authors: | | Plata, Patricia Alvarez Schrooten, Mechthild |
| Issue Date: | | 2003 |
| Series/Report no.: | | DIW-Diskussionspapiere 327 |
| Abstract: | | Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from recession for years the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis has surprised most observers. This paper analyzes whether the ?early warning? or ?signals? approach of Kaminsky (1998), Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky/Reinhart (1999) could have predicted the Argentinean currency crisis at an earlier point in time. Using a broad set of indicators, it is shown that the forecasting quality of this approach was poor in the case of Argentina. |
| Subjects: | | Currency Crisis Early Warning Systems |
| JEL: | | F31 F47 |
| Document Type: | | Working Paper |
| Appears in Collections: | | Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des DIW DIW-Diskussionspapiere
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