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DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorCarstensen, Kaien_US
dc.coverage.temporal1999-2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T14:59:51Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T14:59:51Z-
dc.date.issued2007en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/17842-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, it is analyzed whether core money growth helps to predict future inflation in a useful and reliable way. Using an out-of-sample forecasting exercise and a stability analysis, it is shown that core money growth carries important information not contained in the inflation history, that its inclusion in a forecasting model can increase the forecasting accuracy, and that it has had a strong and stable long-run link to inflation over the last decades. A particularly promising forecasting model at all horizons is the one proposed by Gerlach (2004) that includes the inflation gap, the difference between core money growth and core inflation, and the output gap. This model has a very good track record, exhibits stable parameters over both the pre-EMU and the EMU era. What makes it appealing from a more theoretical perspective is that it relies on the stable long-run relationship between money growth and inflation.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherKiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) Kielen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesKieler Arbeitspapiere 1318en_US
dc.subject.jelE58en_US
dc.subject.jelE47en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordForecastingen_US
dc.subject.keywordcore money growthen_US
dc.subject.keywordstabilityen_US
dc.subject.keywordfilteren_US
dc.subject.stwGeldmengeen_US
dc.subject.stwInflationsrateen_US
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen_US
dc.subject.stwZeitreihenanalyseen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwInflationen_US
dc.subject.stwEuropäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunionen_US
dc.subject.stwEU-Staatenen_US
dc.titleIs core money growth a good and stable inflation predictor in the euro area?en_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn526073748en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
Appears in Collections:Publikationen von Forscherinnen und Forschern des IfW
Kieler Arbeitspapiere, IfW

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