Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/112815 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2015
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2015: Ökonomische Entwicklung - Theorie und Politik - Session: Information, Risk, and Uncertainty in Finance No. B23-V4
Verlag: 
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
Zusammenfassung: 
Multiplicative growth processes that are subject to random shocks often have an asymmetric distribution of outcomes. In a series of incentivized laboratory experiments we show that a large majority of participants either strongly underestimate the asymmetry or ignore it completely. Participants misperceive the outcome distribution's spread to be too narrow-band and they estimate the median and the mode to lie too close to the distribution's center. The observed bias in expectations is irrespective to risk preferences and it appears under a variety of conditions regarding feedback, incentive size, and market contexts. The bias is largely consistent with a behavioral model in which geometric growth is confused with linear growth. This misperception is a possible explanation of investors' difficulties with real-world financial products like leveraged ETFs and is also related to issues regarding real estate investments, retirement savings plans or investments in college funds.
JEL: 
C91
D03
D14
Dokumentart: 
Conference Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
679.96 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.