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    <title>EconStor Collection: Bank of Canada Working Papers</title>
    <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/53155</link>
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      <title>Adopting price-level targeting under imperfect credibility: An update</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/53972</link>
      <description>Title: Adopting price-level targeting under imperfect credibility: An update
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Kryvtsov, Oleksiy; Shukayev, Malik; Ueberfeldt, Alexander
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: This paper measures the welfare gains of switching from inflation-targeting to price-level targeting under imperfect credibility. Vestin (2006) shows that when the monetary authority cannot commit to future policy, price-level targeting yields higher welfare than inflation targeting. We revisit this issue by introducing imperfect credibility, which is modeled as gradual adjustment of the private sector's beliefs about the policy change. We find that gains from switching to pricelevel targeting are small. A welfare loss occurs, if imperfect credibility is highly persistent.</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
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    <item>
      <title>Labour reallocation, relative prices and productivity</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/53971</link>
      <description>Title: Labour reallocation, relative prices and productivity
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Cao, Shutao; Leung, Danny
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: This paper documents the rate at which labour flows between industries and between firms within industries using the most recent data available. It examines the determinants of these flows and their relationship with the productivity growth. It is found that the dispersion of industry employment growth rates has been elevated since 2005, and that this increase is not likely to be related to the business cycle. It is also found that changes in real exchange rates and commodity prices can account for a significant part of the employment dispersion across industries, especially since 2005. However, shifts of employment labour between industries have generally not contributed positively to aggregate labour productivity growth. With respect to movements of labour between firms within industries, it is found that the job reallocation rates have fallen steadily over the past decade and a half. Finally, unlike labour flows between industries, excess job reallocation rates within industries are found to be strongly related to multifactor productivity and labour productivity growth at the industry level.</description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
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      <title>Semi-structural models for inflation forecasting</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/53970</link>
      <description>Title: Semi-structural models for inflation forecasting
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Kichian, Maral; Rumler, Fabio; Corrigan, Paul
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: We propose alternative single-equation semi-structural models for forecasting inflation in Canada, whereby structural New Keynesian models are combined with time-series features in the data. Several marginal cost measures are used, including one that in addition to unit labour cost also integrates relative price shocks known to play an important role in open-economies. Structural estimation and testing is conducted using identification-robust methods that are valid whatever the identification status of the econometric model. We find that our semi-structural models perform better than various strictly structural and conventional time series models. In the latter case, forecasting performance is significantly better, both in the short run and in the medium run.</description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
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      <title>Futures markets, oil prices and the intertemporal approach to the current account</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/53969</link>
      <description>Title: Futures markets, oil prices and the intertemporal approach to the current account
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Arbatli, Elif C.
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: The intertemporal approach to the current account suggests modeling movements in the current account in a forward-looking, dynamic framework. In this framework, the current account reflects consumption smoothing of agents that lend and borrow from the rest of the world in the face of transitory shocks to income. As in permanent income models of consumption, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory shocks is predicted to be significantly smaller which implies that a permanent income shock has a smaller effect on the current account than a transitory income shock. I use the term structure of petroleum futures to identify permanent and transitory innovations to petroleum prices. Then, I formulate a test of the intertemporal approach to the current account based on how a group of nineteen small petroleum exporters respond to each type of income shock. This market-based identification of income shocks and their perceived persistence offers a transparent framework for investigating the empirical evidence for the intertemporal approach. As the theory predicts, petroleum exporters have a significantly higher marginal propensity to consume out of permanent oil price shocks than out of transitory oil price shocks.</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
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