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    <title>EconStor Community: Technische Universität Braunschweig</title>
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      <title>An econometric analysis of the demand surge effect</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/70911</link>
      <description>Title: An econometric analysis of the demand surge effect
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Döhrmann, David; Gürtler, Marc; Hibbeln, Martin
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: In case of a natural catastrophe there is an increased demand for skilled labor and materials which in turn leads to significant price increases that should be taken into account in the forecast of catastrophe losses. Such price effects are referred to as Demand Surge effects. The paper at hand presents an extensive econometric analysis and modeling of the Demand Surge effect. We find that Demand Surge is positively influenced by the total amount of repair work, by alternative catastrophes in the same region in close temporal proximity, and by a higher amount of insurance claims per event. Furthermore, the Demand Surge effect is more pronounced if the construction sector is in a growth stage. In contrast, a higher capacity of the construction sector has a restraining effect on Demand Surge. In addition, if we restrict the data to very severe catastrophes, we observe a saturation effect according to which a wage increase for building services before a catastrophe reduces the Demand Surge effect.</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2012 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>An econometric analysis of the demand surge effect</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/70911</link>
      <description>Title: An econometric analysis of the demand surge effect
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Döhrmann, David; Gürtler, Marc; Hibbeln, Martin
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: In case of a natural catastrophe there is an increased demand for skilled labor and materials which in turn leads to significant price increases that should be taken into account in the forecast of catastrophe losses. Such price effects are referred to as Demand Surge effects. The paper at hand presents an extensive econometric analysis and modeling of the Demand Surge effect. We find that Demand Surge is positively influenced by the total amount of repair work, by alternative catastrophes in the same region in close temporal proximity, and by a higher amount of insurance claims per event. Furthermore, the Demand Surge effect is more pronounced if the construction sector is in a growth stage. In contrast, a higher capacity of the construction sector has a restraining effect on Demand Surge. In addition, if we restrict the data to very severe catastrophes, we observe a saturation effect according to which a wage increase for building services before a catastrophe reduces the Demand Surge effect.</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2012 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Challenging traditional risk models by a non-stationary approach with nonparametric heteroscedasticity</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/67963</link>
      <description>Title: Challenging traditional risk models by a non-stationary approach with nonparametric heteroscedasticity
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Gürtler, Marc; Rauh, Ronald
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: In this paper we analyze an econometric model for non-stationary asset returns. Volatility dynamics are modelled by nonparametric regression; consistency and asymptotic normality of a symmetric and of a one-sided kernel estimator are outlined with remarks on the bandwidth decision. Further attention is paid to asymmetry and heavy tails of the return distribution, involved by the framework for innovations. We survey the practicability and automatization of the implementation. For simulated price processes and a multitude of financial time series we observe a satisfying model approximation and good short-term forecasting abilities of the univariate approach. The non-stationary regression model outperforms parametric risk models and famous ARCH-type implementations.</description>
      <pubDate>Sat, 29 Oct 2011 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The optimality of heterogeneous tournaments</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/67962</link>
      <description>Title: The optimality of heterogeneous tournaments
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Gürtler, Marc; Gürtler, Oliver
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: We investigate the effect of employee heterogeneity on the incentive to put forth effort in a market-based tournament. Employers use the tournament's outcome to estimate employees' abilities and accordingly condition their wage offers. Employees put forth effort, because by doing so they increase the probability of outperforming the rival, thereby increasing their ability assessment and thus the wage offer. We demonstrate that the tournament outcome provides more information about employees' abilities in case they are heterogeneous. Thus, employees get a higher incentive to affect the tournament outcome, and employers find it optimal to hire heterogeneous contestants.</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2012 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
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