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    <title>EconStor Collection: Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2011 (Frankfurt a. M.): Die Ordnung der Weltwirtschaft - Lektionen aus der Krise</title>
    <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/45785</link>
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      <title>EconStor</title>
      <url>http://www.econstor.eu/retrieve/65285</url>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/45785</link>
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      <title>Becoming obsolete: Bankruptcy through technological progress</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/49163</link>
      <description>Title: Becoming obsolete: Bankruptcy through technological progress
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Kleinert, Barbara
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: This paper studies product obsolescence, the entry and exit of firms, and the evolution of firm size as foundation of endogenous economic growth. I develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogenous firms to analyze firm behavior in an economic environment that is characterized by a growing knowledge base. It uses a simple mechanism of knowledge diffusion that induces growth of the general knowledge base. The growing knowledge base forces small firms using the least knowledge intensive production processes to leave the economy, since competition from new entrants is tougher, since they developed their products starting from a larger knowledge base. Exiting firms are found to be smaller and less productive than survivors. Another main insight of the model is the evolution of a cohort's firm size distribution.</description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 29 Oct 2010 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The dynamics of welfare entry and exit among natives and immigrants</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/49162</link>
      <description>Title: The dynamics of welfare entry and exit among natives and immigrants
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Wunder, Christoph; Riphahn, Regina T.
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: This paper uses panel data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) to analyze welfare entry and exit among natives and immigrants after a substantial reform of the welfare system (``Hartz reform''). Using results from dynamic multinomial logit models, we calculate transition matrices between three mutually exclusive labor market states (inactivity, employment, welfare receipt) for five groups: natives, all immigrants, EU citizens, non-EU citizens, and immigrants with German citizenship. The empirical results show that temporal persistence in welfare participation can for the most part be explained by observed and unobserved characteristics. In general, immigrants appear to have a higher risk of welfare entry and a lower probability of welfare exit compared to natives. We find no evidence of a failure of the welfare system in the sense that it creates a welfare trap. Instead, the immigrant-native gap in welfare dependence arises from an insufficient labor market integration and an increased risk of unemployment for immigrants. The analysis identifies non-EU citizens, who are mostly of Turkish origin or citizens of the successor states of former Yugoslavia, as a group with particularly poor labor market prospects: they have the lowest employment stability, the highest persistence in welfare participation, the highest welfare entry rate, and the lowest welfare exit rate.</description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 29 Oct 2010 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
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      <title>Job Matching on non-separated Occupational Labour Markets</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/49161</link>
      <description>Title: Job Matching on non-separated Occupational Labour Markets
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Stops, Michael
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: This work refers to analyses of matching processes on occupational labour markets in Germany. Up to now, all studies in this field are based on the crucial assumption of separate occupational labour markets. I outlined some theoretical considerations that occupational markets are probably not completely separated. By using information about similarities of occupational groups I constructed an "occupational topology" and finally tested my hypothesis of non-separated occupational labour markets with Spatial Econometric Estimators, particularly with a restricted version of a Spatial Durbin Model that includes “spatial” lags for regressors. The results show considerable dependencies between similar occupational groups in the matching process. Particularly, the results indicate occupational specific set-up and set-down processes in similar occupational groups. This has important implications for estimating the matching efficiencies of unemployed and vacancies, because the matching process is not only determined by the unemployed and vacancies in the same occupational group but also by those in other occupational groups.</description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 29 Oct 2010 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
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      <title>Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/48683</link>
      <description>Title: Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Müller, Hans Christian
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: Previous empirical evidence which evaluated the accuracy of management earnings or sales forecasts consistently revealed these forecasts to be on average significantly overoptimistic. However, all studies analyzed forecasts from public disclosures, which are an important signal to investors and analysts and thus likely biased by strategic considerations. To disentagle, whether and to which extent strategic deception or cognitive biases are resposible for this overoptimism, the present study analyzes the accuracy of 6,276 undisclosed, company-internal sales forecasts, which German firms provided anonymously to the IAB Establishment Panel. Quite surprisingly, the study reveals the average forecast to be significantly overpessimistic. I propose that the non-existence of a general bias towards overoptimism is due to the lack of incentives to consciously overgloss future prospects in undisclosed forecasts and that overpessimism may be a consequence of loss aversion.</description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 29 Oct 2010 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
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