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    <title>EconStor Community: ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München</title>
    <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18</link>
    <description>Ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich</description>
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      <url>http://www.econstor.eu/retrieve/97392</url>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/18</link>
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      <title>Prediction Qualities of the Ifo Indicators on a Temporal Disaggregated German GDP</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73856</link>
      <description>Title: Prediction Qualities of the Ifo Indicators on a Temporal Disaggregated German GDP
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Seiler, Christian
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: This paper compares the German Gross Domestic Product between 1991 and 2008 with the Ifo business indicators. Because GDP is published quarterly but the Ifo indicators monthly, the most analyses compare these variables by merging the indicators to quarterly data. In this paper an alternative way is shown: GDP will be disaggregated with ECOTRIM, a software package from Eurostat, to get monthly data. Furthermore, a spline-based disaggregation approach is discussed. The results of the analyses demonstrate a high connection between the disaggregated GDP and the Ifo indicators.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 29 Oct 2008 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Virtues of VAR Forecast Pooling: A DSGE Model Based Monte Carlo Study</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73855</link>
      <description>Title: The Virtues of VAR Forecast Pooling: A DSGE Model Based Monte Carlo Study
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Henzel, Steffen; Mayr, Johannes
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: Since the seminal article of Bates and Granger (1969), a large number of theoretical and empirical studies have shown that pooling different forecasts of the same event tends to outperform individual forecasts in terms of forecast accuracy. However, the results remain heterogenous regarding the size of gains. As there are numerous sources for the large variation of the resulting gains, it is difficult to estimate the improvement in accuracy based on empirical findings. Consequently, we use Monte Carlo techniques which enable us to identify the gains of pooling from VAR forecasts under lab conditions. In particular, the results are allowed to vary with respect to sample size, forecast horizon, number of pooled forecasts, weighting scheme and structure of the model economy. Given strict lab conditions, our setup of the experiment yields a quantification of the virtues that can be obtained in almost any forecast situation. The analysis shows that pooling leads to a substantial reduction of MSE of about 20%, which is comparable to the elimination of estimation uncertainty. Most notably, this reduction is already obtained with an average of about four different forecasts.</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 29 Oct 2008 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
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    <item>
      <title>The Development of Renewable Energies and Supply Security: A Trade-Off Analysis</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73854</link>
      <description>Title: The Development of Renewable Energies and Supply Security: A Trade-Off Analysis
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Röpke, Luise
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of the green transformation on the German electricity sector with respect to the energy political triangle. It focuses on how the development of renewable energies will affect security of electricity supply. In a cost-benefit analysis, the value of supply security is compared with its costs of provision. More specifically, the benefits of maintaining the present quality of electricity supply are the avoided social damages from electricity outages and are compared with the respective investment costs in the low- and medium-voltage distribution grid. It is shown that the transformation process towards a green and decentralized production structure will be costly for society, even though the costs can be reduced by different measures.</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2012 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
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    <item>
      <title>Climate-friendly technologies in the mobile air-conditioning sector: A patent citation analysis</title>
      <link>http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73853</link>
      <description>Title: Climate-friendly technologies in the mobile air-conditioning sector: A patent citation analysis
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Authors: Rave, Tilmann; Goetzke, Frank
&lt;br/&gt;
&lt;br/&gt;Abstract: The development of climate-friendly technologies and its diffusion across countries is of key importance to slow climate change. This paper considers technologies in the mobile air-conditioning (MAC) sector which is a major contributor of fluorinatedgreenhouse gas emissions. Using patents as an indicator of innovations and patent citations as a proxy for knowledge flows the inducement of new environmental and non-environmental technologies and its diffusion within and across countries and withinand across patent applicant- and firm-types is analyzed. We find that most environmental patents originate from Germany and the US and are filed by individuals rather than firms. Most knowledge flows take place within countries. Regarding cross-countryflows most environmental knowledge diffuses from French and German patents, which is likely to be a result of regulatory activities in Europe and intensified research on environmentally benign MAC systems. Yet, this exchange of knowledge is not very intensive and stable, so that the impact of EU regulations on US and Japanese patenting behaviour remains fairly weak.</description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 29 Oct 2010 22:58:59 GMT</pubDate>
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