EconStor Community:
https://hdl.handle.net/10419/66568
2024-03-29T16:01:45ZPrice prediction for bitcoin: Does periodicity matter?
https://hdl.handle.net/10419/280264
Title: Price prediction for bitcoin: Does periodicity matter?
Authors: Gbadebo, Adedeji Daniel; Olorunfemi, Akande Joseph; Oluwatobi, Adekunle Ahmed
Abstract: Purpose: A major challenge traders, speculators and investors are grappling with is how to accurately forecast Bitcoin price in the cryptocurrency market, This study is aimed to uncover the best model for the forecasts of Bitcoin price as well as to verify the price series that offers the best predictions performance under different periodicity of datasets. Design/methodology/approach: The study adopts three different data periods to verify whether frequency matters in forecasting Bitcoin price, The Bitcoin price, from 01/01/15 to 11/01/2021, is trained and validated on selected forecast models, including the Näive, Linear, Exponential Smoothing Model, ARIMA, Neural Network, STL and Holt-Winters filters, Five forecast accuracy measures (RSME, MAE, MPE, MAPE and MASE) are applied to confirm the best performing model, The Diebold-Mariano test is used to compare the forecasts based on the daily price with those based on the weekly and monthly. Findings: Based on the accuracy measures, the results indicate that the Näive model provides more accurate performance for the daily series, while the linear model outperforms others for the weekly and monthly series, Using the Diebold-Mariano statistics, there is evidence that forecasting Bitcoin price is not sensitive to the data periodicity. Research limitations/implications: The study has a major limitation, which is the shared sentiment to apply actual Bitcoin price series, and not the returns or log transformation for the forecast models, Notably, actual data may sometimes be loud, hence increasing the possibility of over predictions. Originality/value: In forecasting, different approaches have been used, this paper compares outputs of both statistical and machine learning methods in order to arrive at the best option for the Bitcoin price forecasts, Hence, we investigate whether the machine learning tools offer better forecasts in terms of lower error and higher model's accuracy relative to the traditional models.2023-01-01T00:00:00ZParental financial socialisation and financial knowledge: A structural equation modelling analysis
https://hdl.handle.net/10419/280267
Title: Parental financial socialisation and financial knowledge: A structural equation modelling analysis
Authors: Ndou, Adam
Abstract: Purpose: The main aim of the study was to investigate the impact of parental financial socialisation on financial knowledge of young black African adults in rural and low-income area in South Africa. This study was guided by family financial socialisation theory which is cognisant of the various family characteristics, such as family size and socioeconomic status, as predictors of financial outcome through their association with family socialisation process. Design/methodology/approach: The study used quantitative approach and survey design. Primary data on parental financial socialisation was collected from structured questionnaires. A survey was carried out on 500 young black African adults in Fetakgomo Tubatse and Intsika Yethu municipalities. The research hypotheses were tested using structural equation modelling (SEM) analysis. Findings: The study found that parental financial behaviour, parental financial discussion, parental financial communication, and parental financial teaching had significant positive impact on financial knowledge. It is observed that parental financial communication had the strongest impact on financial knowledge. Parental financial monitoring had a significant negative impact on financial knowledge. Thus, the overall results showed that parental financial socialisation has an impact on financial knowledge of young black African adults in rural and low-income area in South Africa. Research limitations/implications: Due to the low levels of general literacy among the respondents, which negatively affected data collection; some young adults did not understand the questionnaire and withdrew from participating in the study. Furthermore, even though confidentiality and anonymity were guaranteed, respondents were reluctant to participate in the study. They feared exposing their financial position and displayed a lack of trust. Originality/value: The current study contributed to the body of knowledge differently to the previous studies because it focused on parental financial socialisation of young black African adults in rural and low-income area. There is no study which has been conducted on parental financial socialisation impact on financial knowledge in rural and low-income area in South Africa. This makes this study so important and warrant that it should be carried out to provide the much-needed results that could help to improve the level of financial knowledge of young black African adults.2023-01-01T00:00:00ZModelling stock market prices using the open, high and closes prices: Evidence from international financial markets
https://hdl.handle.net/10419/280262
Title: Modelling stock market prices using the open, high and closes prices: Evidence from international financial markets
Authors: Enow, Samuel Tabot
Abstract: Purpose: Modelling security prices seem to be an ending debate in finance literature due to no clear consensus on behavioral patterns, Knowledge of stock price movement has always been an important source of information that is much needed in asset pricing and trading strategies, The aim of this study was to model stock market prices using six international markets as a sample, Design/methodology/approach: This study made use of the Bayesian Time-Varying coefficient for a five-year period from January 2, 2018, to January 2, 2023, Finding: The findings of this study revealed that there is strong empirical evidence that the returns of a security can be modelled using the open, high and low prices, Research limitations/implications: This implies that the drift in stock price movement can be better explained by observing the lag values of the open, high and low prices which may be an important tool for short term traders and incorporated in volatility estimation, Also, the lag values of the open, high and low price movements explain more than 98% of changes in the closing price, Originality/value: As per the author's knowledge, this study is the first to model stock market prices using the open, high and low prices for multiple international markets.2023-01-01T00:00:00ZInterest charges and the "said" ageing-related expenditures: A study of OECD countries
https://hdl.handle.net/10419/280259
Title: Interest charges and the "said" ageing-related expenditures: A study of OECD countries
Authors: Zapji Ymélé, Aimé Philombe
Abstract: Purpose: The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether the interest charges on public debt could be a threat for the "said" ageing expenditures, This study attempts to analyze the effects of debt burdens known as interest charges in relation to the pensions and health care spending, The "said" ageing expenditures since the debate on this issue doesn't allow us to say that these expenses are totally linked to ageing. Design/methodology/approach: This study conducts an ordinary least squares analysis based on panel and cross-sectional data covering the period 2000-2020, The data are extracted from OECD statistic and from Eurostat statistic database, The research performs an analysis on 33 OECD countries, The dependents variables are pensions and health care spendings on GDP, The key independent variable is the interest charges, Other additional variables are included in the analysis that we can find in the text. Findings: The results of this study remain ambiguous and call for further study, Nevertheless, based on the current data, there is every reason to believe that, at present, expenditures on interest charges would not crowd out spending on pensions and health care, However, the significance of the demographic variables (old-age dependency ratio, total dependency ratio), and the increase in these ratios in the projections, point to a potential risk of collapse of the pension and health care systems. Research limitations/implications: The main difficulty encountered in this study was the collection of empirical literature dealing with our topic, Many papers used in our empirical literature was not always in relation with the topic of our research, Our challenge was to create the relation with those analyses to propose something original. Originality/value: We propose an innovative study, by proposing the analysis of debt charges in relation to pensions and health care expenditures, Several approaches in the same direction have used other parameters to analyze the costs of ageing, notably the debt to GDP ratio, We integrate other demographic variables such as the dependency ratio, macroeconomic indicators such as the savings rate, All these elements constitute the originality of our study.2023-01-01T00:00:00Z