EconStor Community: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60474
Federal Reserve Bank of New York2024-03-19T08:27:55ZA measure of core wage inflation
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/284027
Title: A measure of core wage inflation
Authors: Almuzara, Martin; Audoly, Richard; Melcangi, Davide
Abstract: We recover the persistent ("core") component of nominal wage growth over the past twenty-five years in the United States. Our approach combines worker-level data with time-series smoothing methods and can disentangle the common persistence of wage inflation from the persistence specific to some subgroup of workers, such as workers in a specific industry. We find that most of the business cycle fluctuations in wage inflation are persistent and driven by a common factor. This common persistent factor is particularly important during inflationary periods, and it explains 80 to 90 percent of the post-pandemic surge in wage inflation. Contrary to standard measures of wage inflation, the persistent component of wage inflation contemporaneously co-moves with labor market tightness.2024-01-01T00:00:00ZU.S. banks' exposures to climate transition risks
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/284018
Title: U.S. banks' exposures to climate transition risks
Authors: Jung, Hyeyoon; Santos, João A. C.; Seltzer, Lee
Abstract: We find that banks' credit exposures to transition risks are modest. We build on the estimated sectoral effects of climate transition policies from general equilibrium models. Even when we consider the strictest policies or the most adverse scenarios, exposures do not exceed 14 percent of banks' loan portfolios. We also find that commonly used carbon emissions can explain at most 60 percent of bank exposures estimated off general equilibrium models. Moreover, we find evidence of bank management of transition risk exposures. Banks that signed the Net-Zero Alliance have reduced their exposures compared to non-signatories, mainly by cutting lending to the riskiest industries.2024-01-01T00:00:00ZThe New York Fed DSGE model: A post-Covid assessment
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/284042
Title: The New York Fed DSGE model: A post-Covid assessment
Authors: Del Negro, Marco; Dogra, Keshav; Gleich, Aidan; Gundam, Pranay; Lee, Donggyu; Nallamotu, Ramya; Pacula, Brian
Abstract: We document the real-time forecasting performance for output and inflation of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model since 2011. We find the DSGE's accuracy to be comparable to that of private forecasters before Covid, but somewhat worse thereafter.2024-01-01T00:00:00ZSelf-employment and labor market risks
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/284045
Title: Self-employment and labor market risks
Authors: Audoly, Richard
Abstract: I study the labor market risks associated with being self-employed. I document that the self-employed are subject to larger earnings fluctuations than employees and that they frequently transition into unemployment. Given that the self-employed are not eligible to unemployment insurance, I analyze the provision of benefits targeted at these risks using a calibrated search model with (i) precautionary savings, (ii) work opportunities in paid and self-employment, and (iii) skill heterogeneity. This exercise suggests that extending the current U.S. unemployment insurance scheme to the self-employed comes with a clear increase in the transition rate from self-employment to unemployment and an unequal benefits-tocontributions ratio across skill groups. At the calibrated parameters, the self-employed in the middle of the skill distribution lose welfare.2024-01-01T00:00:00Z