EconStor Community: Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs (WWS), Princeton University
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/273
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs (WWS), Princeton University2016-06-26T06:33:11ZDo newspapers matter? Evidence from the closure of The Cincinnati Post
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/59031
Title: Do newspapers matter? Evidence from the closure of The Cincinnati Post
Authors: Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam; Garrido, Miguel
Abstract: The Cincinnati Post published its last edition on New Year's Eve 2007, leaving the Cincinnati Enquirer as the only daily newspaper in the market. The next year, fewer candidates ran for municipal office in the suburbs most reliant on the Post, incumbents became more likely to win re-election, and voter turnout fell. We exploit a difference-in-differences strategy - comparing changes in outcomes before and after the Post's closure in suburbs where the newspaper offered more or less intensive coverage - and the fact that the Post's closing date was fixed 30 years in advance to rule out some non-causal explanations for these results. Although our findings are statistically imprecise, they demonstrate that newspapers - even underdogs such as the Post, which had a circulation of just 27,000 when it closed - can have a substantial and measurable impact on public life.2009-01-01T00:00:00ZHeterogeneous Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/59030
Title: Heterogeneous Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles
Authors: Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam
Abstract: I study the welfare cost of business cycles in a complete-markets economy where some people are more risk averse than others. Relatively more risk-averse people buy insurance against aggregate risk, and relatively less risk-averse people sell insurance. These trades reduce the welfare cost of business cycles for everyone. Indeed, the least risk-averse people benefit from business cycles. Moreover, even infinitely risk-averse people suffer only finite and, in my empirical estimates, very small welfare losses. In other words, when there are complete insurance markets, aggregate uctuations in consumption are essentially irrelevant not just for the average person- the surprising finding of Lucas (1987)- but for everyone in the economy, no matter how risk averse they are. If business cycles matter, it is because they affect productivity or interact with uninsured idiosyncratic risk, not because aggregate risk per se reduces welfare.2007-01-01T00:00:00ZUsing VARs to identify models of fiscal policy: A comment on perotti
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/59029
Title: Using VARs to identify models of fiscal policy: A comment on perotti
Authors: Reis, Ricardo
Abstract: This note comments on Perotti's (2008) estimates of the impact of a government spending shock on the economy. In the process, it makes two points. First, it notes that with enough freedom to pick the dynamics of policy variables, the neoclassical model can generate any set of observations for the non-policy variables. Second, it proposes a method to identify the policy dynamics in theoretical models by using the estimated impulse responses of the policy variables from VARs, and in this way generate testable predictions of the model for the non-policy variables.2007-01-01T00:00:00ZThe time-series properties of aggregate consumption: implications for the costs of fluctuations
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/23460
Title: The time-series properties of aggregate consumption: implications for the costs of fluctuations
Authors: Reis, Ricardo
Abstract: While this is typically ignored, the properties of the stochastic process followed
by aggregate consumption affect the estimates of the costs of fluctuations. This paper
pursues two approaches to modelling aggregate consumption dynamics and to measuring
how much society dislikes fluctuations, one statistical and one economic. The statistical
approach estimates the properties of consumption and calculates the cost of having
consumption fluctuating around its mean growth. The paper finds that the persistence
of consumption is a crucial determinant of these costs and that the high persistence
in the data severely distorts conventional measures. It shows how to compute valid
estimates and confidence intervals. The economic approach uses a calibrated model
of optimal consumption and measures the costs of eliminating income shocks. This
uncovers a further cost of uncertainty, through its impact on precautionary savings and
investment. The two approaches lead to costs of fluctuations that are higher than the
common wisdom, between 0.5% and 5% of per capita consumption.2005-01-01T00:00:00Z