@techreport{Lehmann2012Forecasting,
abstract = {In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a unique data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden-W\"{u}rttemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a data-poor environment at the sub-national level by including more than 300 international, national and regional indicators. We calculate single-indicator, multi-indicator and pooled forecasts. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both for short- and long-term predictions. Furthermore, our best leading indicators describe the specific regional economic structure better than other indicators.},
address = {M\"{u}nchen},
author = {Robert Lehmann and Klaus Wohlrabe},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
keywords = {C32; C52; C53; E37; R11; 330; leading indicators; regional forecasting; forecast evaluation; forecast combination; data rich environment; Konjunkturindikator; Konjunkturprognose; Regionaler Konjunkturzyklus; Teilstaat; Deutschland; Sachsen; Baden-W\"{u}rttemberg; Neue Bundesl\"{a}nder},
language = {eng},
number = {3956},
publisher = {CESifo},
title = {Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors},
type = {CESifo Working Paper: Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/65395},
year = {2012}
}
