@techreport{Kahn2003Tracking,
abstract = {The acceleration of productivity since 1995 has prompted a debate over whether the economy's underlying growth rate will remain high. In this paper, we propose a methodology for estimating trend growth that draws on growth theory to identify variables other than productivity - namely consumption and labor compensation - to help estimate trend productivity growth. We treat that trend as a common factor with two regimes high-growth and low-growth. Our analysis picks up striking evidence of a switch in the mid-1990s to a higher long-term growth regime, as well as a switch in the early 1970s in the other direction. In addition, we find that productivity data alone provide insufficient evidence of regime changes; corroborating evidence from other data is crucial in identifying changes in trend growth. We also argue that our methodology would be effective in detecting changes in trend in real time: In the case of the 1990s, the methodology would have detected the regime switch within two years of its actual occurrence according to subsequent data.},
address = {New York, NY},
author = {James A. Kahn and Robert Rich},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
keywords = {O4; O51; C32; 330; Produktivit\"{a}t; Neue Wachstumstheorie; Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsum; Lohn; USA},
language = {eng},
number = {159},
publisher = {Federal Reserve Bank of New York},
title = {Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity},
type = {Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of New York},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60647},
year = {2003}
}
