@techreport{Chauvet2001Recent,
abstract = {The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used to estimate a common factor model that allows for structural breaks in the dynamics of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. We find strong evidence that a reduction in volatility is common to the series examined. Further, the reduction in volatility implies that future expansions will be considerably longer than the historical average.},
address = {New York, NY},
author = {Marcelle Chauvet and Simon Potter},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
keywords = {E52; C53; 330; Recession; Common Factor; Business Cycle; Bayesian Methods; Konjunktur; Zeitreihenanalyse; Bayes-Statistik; USA},
language = {eng},
number = {126},
publisher = {Federal Reserve Bank of New York},
title = {Recent changes in the US business cycle},
type = {Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of New York},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/60541},
year = {2001}
}
