@techreport{Dopke1998Leading,
abstract = {The paper investigates a set of possible leading indicators for Euroland's business  cycle using aggregated quarterly data. The theoretical plausibility, the  behavior at business cycle turning points and the mean leads are analyzed.  Furthermore, evidence from cross-correlations and Granger-causality tests is  presented. Taking all evidence together, real monetary aggregates, nominal  interest rates and the interest rate spread are recommended as leading indicators,  whereas survey data on order inflow and production expectations are the best  coincident indicators.},
address = {Kiel},
author = {J\"{o}rg D\"{o}pke},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
keywords = {E32; 330; Business Cycle; Leading Indicator; European Monetary Union; Konjunkturindikator; Konjunkturprognose; Prognoseverfahren; Sch\"{a}tzung; Europ\"{a}ische Wirtschafts- und W\"{a}hrungsunion; EU-Staaten},
language = {eng},
number = {886},
publisher = {Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)},
title = {Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle},
type = {Kiel Working Papers},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/46875},
year = {1998}
}
