@techreport{Lay2004poor,
abstract = {This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia?s ability to
achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three
different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario that roughly extrapolates the situation
prevailing before the onset of the recent economic crisis; a more realistic scenario that
accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Ni?o);
and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform
projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns
out that the shocks have not only contributed to the economic crisis, but that they are also
likely to impair Bolivia?s medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases
in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, their impact on
growth would be large enough to slightly overcompensate the impact of the negative
external shocks. The poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for
urban households, but reinforced for rural households.},
address = {Kiel},
author = {Jann Lay and Rainer Thiele and Manfred Wiebelt},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
editor = {Institut f\"{u}r Weltwirtschaft, Kiel},
keywords = {D58; O54; 330; Pro-poor Growth , CGE Analysis , Bolivia; Wirtschaftsreform; Schock; Armut; Wirtschaftswachstum; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht; Sch\"{a}tzung; Bolivien},
language = {eng},
number = {1231; 1231},
publisher = {Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)},
series = {Kiel working paper},
title = {Pro-poor growth in Bolivia : accounting for external shocks and policy reforms},
type = {Kieler Arbeitspapiere},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/3394},
year = {2004}
}
