@techreport{Schmidt2009Forecasting,
abstract = {In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance of the new indicator is assessed relative to the two most common survey-based indicators - the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. The results show that in almost all conducted in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting experiments the Google indicator outperforms the survey-based indicators. This suggests that incorporating information from Google Trends may offer significant benefits to forecasters of private consumption.},
address = {Essen},
author = {Torsten Schmidt and Simeon Vosen},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
isbn = {978-3-86788-175-3},
keywords = {C53; E21 : E27; 330; Google Trends; private consumption; forecasting; Consumer Sentiment Indicator; Gesamtwirtschaftlicher Konsum; Prognoseverfahren; Konsumklima; Internet-Portal; Suchmaschine; Vergleich; USA},
language = {eng},
number = {155},
publisher = {RWI},
title = {Forecasting private consumption: survey-based indicators vs. Google trends},
type = {Ruhr economic papers},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/29900},
year = {2009}
}
