@techreport{Gundlach2009agricultural,
abstract = {Long-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition. Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality.},
address = {Kiel},
author = {Erich Gundlach and Martin Paldam},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
editor = {Kiel Inst. for the World Economy, Kiel},
keywords = {O1; P5; Q1; 330; Long-run growth; transitions; causality and spuriousness; Entwicklung; Wirtschaftswachstum; Drei-Sektoren-Hypothese; Demokratie; Kausalanalyse; Welt},
language = {eng},
number = {1521; 1521},
publisher = {Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)},
series = {Kiel working paper},
title = {The agricultural and the democratic transitions: causality and the roundup model},
type = {Kiel working paper},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/28349},
year = {2009}
}
