@techreport{Beckmann2005Robust,
abstract = {Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despite this limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, policy-makers must decide about some EWSs' elements, such as the sensitivity of the forecasts. Third, EWSs' performance is increased by taking a logit model, shorter samples and a regional approach. Fourth, the finding of contagion may motivate policy to shield its economy against inefficient international financial markets.},
author = {Daniela Beckmann and Lukas Menkhoff and Katja Sawischlewski},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
keywords = {F31; F37; F33; 330; early warning system; currency crises; emerging markets},
language = {eng},
number = {322},
title = {Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems},
type = {Diskussionspapiere des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universit\"{a}t Hannover},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/22434},
year = {2005}
}
