@techreport{Jokisch2004Simulation,
abstract = {All countries in the European Union stand at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Especially
Germany will realize an enormous aging of its population. The reasons for this development
are twofold: On the one hand, the number of elderly will more than double over the coming decades.
On the other hand, since fertility rates are projected to stay at a low level, the number of workers
available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will decline.
Due to very generous social security systems this aging process is expected to put enormous pressure
on future government expenses. To address the consequences of population aging in Germany, this
paper develops a dynamic, intergenerational demographic life-cycle model. The model features immigration,
age-specific fertility, life span extension and life span uncertainty. Cohorts within the model
differ in their human capital profiles and leave bequests arising from incomplete annuitization. We
also incorporate the German pension, health care and long-term care system. After introducing the
theoretical model, we simulate the transition path including reforms of the pension system imposed
by the so called "Riester" reform and keeping current immigration constant. The results are presented
for the case of a closed and a small open economy.},
author = {Sabine Jokisch and Gitte Halder and Hans Fehr},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
keywords = {J11; H55; D58; 330; Demographic transition; overlapping generations (OLG); computable general equilibrium models (CGE); Alternde Bev\"{o}lkerung; Bev\"{o}lkerungs\"{o}konomie; Overlapping Generations; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht; Deutschland},
language = {eng},
number = {48},
title = {A Simulation Model for the Demographic Transition in Germany : Data Requirements, Model Structure and Calibration},
type = {W\"{u}rzburg economic papers},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/22341},
year = {2004}
}
