@techreport{Fertig2000Aggregate,
abstract = {Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most
relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to
address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and
to extrapolate from these estimates on the basis of conditioning information that is assumed to
be known with certainty. In this context, this strategy faces formidable problems that exceed the
usual difficulties arising for the prediction of economic variables. This paper addresses this
extrapolation problem formally, with an application to the case of EU-enlargement and the
ensuing migration streams to be expected from Eastern Europe.},
author = {Michael Fertig and Christoph M. Schmidt},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
keywords = {J61; J11; C23; 330; Demographic Structure; Variance Components; GMM; Internationale Wanderung; Mobilit\"{a}t; Prognoseverfahren; Bev\"{o}lkerungsstruktur; Momentenmethode; EU-Erweiterung; Sch\"{a}tzung; Ostmitteleuropa; Einwanderung; Deutschland},
language = {eng},
number = {183},
title = {Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams},
type = {IZA Discussion paper series},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/21026},
year = {2000}
}
