@techreport{Wolff2006macroeconomic,
abstract = {We investigate the short-term effects of fiscal policy shocks on the German
economy following the SVAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). We
find that direct government expenditure shocks increase output and private
consumption on impact with low statistical significance, while they decrease
private investment, though insignificantly. For the sub-category government
investment \textendash{} in contrast to government consumption \textendash{} a positive output effect
is found, which is statistically significant until 12 quarters ahead. Allowing
for anticipation effects of fiscal policy does not change the sign of the positive
consumption response. Anticipated expenditure shocks have significant effects
on output when the shock is realized, but not in the period of anticipation.
In sum, effects of expenditure shocks are only short-lived. Government net
revenue shocks do not affect output with statistical significance. However,
when splitting up this aggregate, direct taxes lower output significantly, while
small indirect tax revenue shocks have little effects. Compensation of public
employees is equally not effective in stimulating the economy.},
author = {Guntram B. Wolff and J\"{o}rn Tenhofen and Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
keywords = {H30; E62; 330; Fiscal policy; government spending; net revenue; policy anticipation; structural vector autoregression; Finanzpolitik; Schock; Wirtschaftspolitische Wirkungsanalyse; Makro\"{o}konomischer Einfluss; Sch\"{a}tzung; Deutschland},
language = {eng},
number = {2006,41},
title = {The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis},
type = {Discussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19670},
year = {2006}
}
