@techreport{Kugler2004Measurement,
abstract = {This paper analyzes forward-looking rules for Swiss monetary policy in a small
structural VAR consisting of four variables. First, the paper looks at the ex ante
inflation-output-growth volatility trade-off for a forward-looking policy aiming at a
convex combination of a strict inflation and output growth targeting rule implied by this
SVAR model. Thereby the paper introduces a new analytical method. Second, the paper
considers the effect of measurement errors in GDP on this inflation-output-growth
volatility trade-off. Third, the paper works at the impact of changing beliefs about the
potential growth rate on the variability of output growth and inflation. Finally the
effects of different targets in a forward-looking monetary policy on ex post or
unconditional volatility of inflation and output growth is explored by a simulation
exercise.},
author = {Peter Kugler and Thomas J. Jordan and Carlos Lenz and Marcel R. Savioz},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
keywords = {E53; E52; 330; Structural VAR; forward-looking monetary policy; efficiency frontier; GDP measurement errors; Geldpolitik; Sozialprodukt; Statistischer Fehler; VAR-Modell; Schweiz},
language = {eng},
number = {2004,31},
title = {Measurement errors in GDP and forward-looking monetary policy: The Swiss case},
type = {Discussion paper Series 1 / Volkswirtschaftliches Forschungszentrum der Deutschen Bundesbank},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19498},
year = {2004}
}
