@techreport{Pesaran2005Survey,
abstract = {This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of
expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance
of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational
expectations hypothesis which focuses on average expectations rather than individual
expectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptive
expectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational and
extrapolative models of expectations are reviewed and the importance of the loss function for
the interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper then provides an account of the
various surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitative
surveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis of
expectations and for forecasting.},
author = {Mohammad Hashem Pesaran and Martin R. Weale},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
keywords = {C53; C50; C40; C80; 330; models of expectations formation; survey data; heterogeneity; tests of rational expectations; Rationale Erwartung; Erwartungstheorie},
language = {eng},
number = {1599},
title = {Survey expectations},
type = {CESifo working papers},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19063},
year = {2005}
}
