@techreport{Malley2005Electoral,
abstract = {In this paper we study the link between elections, fiscal policy and aggregate fluctuations. The
set-up is a stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating both
technology and political re-election shocks. The later are incorporated via a two-party model
with elections. The main theoretical prediction is that forward-looking incumbents, with
uncertain prospects of re-election, find it optimal to follow relatively shortsighted fiscal
policies, and that this hurts capital accumulation. Our econometric estimation, using U.S.
data, finds a statistically significant link between electoral uncertainty and policy instruments
and in turn macroeconomic outcomes.},
author = {Jim Malley and Apostolis Philippopoulos and Ulrich Woitek},
copyright = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
keywords = {E6; D9; H5; H1; 330; political uncertainty; business cycles & growth; optimal policy; hybrid maximum likelihood estimation; Wahlverhalten; Finanzpolitik; Politischer Konjunkturzyklus; Sch\"{a}tzung; Theorie; USA},
language = {eng},
number = {1593},
title = {Electoral uncertainty, fiscal policy and macroeconomic fluctuations},
type = {CESifo working papers},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/19057},
year = {2005}
}
